Indian economy on course for 9% GDP growth this year
The latest edition of the Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) from ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) reveals once again that global economic growth will continue, but at a modest pace. Both the global confidence and orders indices increased in Q1, but by relatively small amounts. In South Asia, the Indian economy was on course for 9% GDP growth this year as it recovered from Covid lockdowns. But as a big importer of oil inflation will rise above the current 6% in coming months and drag real incomes lower according to the survey.
Conducted just before and during the war in Ukraine, the results understandably point to economic turbulence in the coming months.
GECS’s index of concern about operating costs jumped again in the latest survey by nine percentage points globally and is now at its highest level on record at 62%. This dramatic rise has played out over the last year and tracks the effects of rising energy and transport costs caused by supply chain shortages and disruption.
In the Q1 survey, global confidence and global orders were little changed, up by four points to +9 for confidence and by two points to -3 for orders. Other economic activity indicators, such as employment and capital spending improved. Overall, the Q1 survey maintains the trend of modest overall growth through to the middle of the year, well down from the strong post-pandemic recovery of 2021. In Q1, the Middle East was the best performing region with jumps in confidence and orders, probably a reflection of the increase in the oil price.
GECS’s two ‘fear’ indices – measured by concern that customers and suppliers may go out of business – were little changed in the Q1 survey, down by two points and one point respectively. Both indices have fallen back from extreme levels seen in 2020 but are still above pre-pandemic levels.
ACCA’s chief economist Michael Taylor commented: ‘Given the fast-moving and unpredictable nature of the war in Ukraine, it’s important to note that the survey may not fully capture the likely effects of the invasion. But the main economic effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been to push oil, gas, wheat, and other commodity prices much higher. This will propel inflation to even greater heights, squeezing real incomes and slowing economic growth. Compared with previous forecasts, global growth may be reduced by as much as one percentage point this year, to around 3.25%.’
Loreal Jiles, vice president of research and thought leadership at IMA added: ‘We again asked respondents to name their two biggest economic risks – 51% said supply chain disruption and 50% said renewed COVID restrictions. India’s economic conditions will remain affected by supply chain volatility and renewed Covid restrictions but the higher confidence in Q1 of the year 2022 is a welcome trend. However, the Ukraine-Russian crisis might create economic uncertainties for the country.’
Both ACCA and IMA warn of the risk of policy mistakes. Loreal Jiles explained: ‘Removing the exceptional policy ease introduced to mitigate the effects of the pandemic was always going to be tricky. Over the last year, supply shortages and now the Russia-Ukraine war have resulted in a stagflation scenario reminiscent of the 1970s which was a time of weak economic growth combined with high rates of inflation.’
Michael Taylor concluded: ‘The economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are yet to fully emerge. Central banks in advanced economies face a difficult judgement call that could result either in over-tight policy causing recession or too easy policy embedding inflation and inflation expectations. Policies need to be thought through and stress-tested very carefully in the days, weeks and months ahead.’