– VIL’s churn leads to low gross/active subscriber additions:
· The industry-wide gross subscriber base increased 2.7m MoM to 1,146m (vs. +0.4m in Jun’23). The growth in gross subscriber base has been flattish for the last nine months. VIL continues to lose 1.3m subscribers, while RJio/Bharti gained 3.9m/1.5m subscribers.
· The industry’s active subscriber additions picked up again after a drop in Jun’23, with 3.6m MoM increase to 1,046m (vs. -0.5m in Jun’23). Active subscriber base has been increasing by an average of 5.2m per month over the last six months. RJio added 1.2m, Bharti added 3.2m while VIL lost 0.4m subscribers.
· Rural subscribers: The number of rural subscribers rose 0.2m MoM (vs. +0.5m in Jun’23) to 517.7m. RJio added 2m subscribers (vs. +1.1m in Jun’23), while Bharti/VIL/BSNL lost 0.5m/0.7m/0.6m (vs. +0.4m/-0.5m/-0.4m in Jun’23) subscribers. RJio continued to lead in rural market with a 37.6% share (up 40bp MoM), followed by Bharti at 34.9% (down 20bp MoM) and VIL at 21.5% (down 10bp MoM).
· 4G subscriber additions pick up: The industry added 6.1m 4G subscribers in Jul’23 (vs. 4m additions in Jun’23) to reach 832m subscribers (79% of active subscribers). However, the industry reported slower additions over the last one year (~4.5m adds per month). Bharti/RJio added 2.9m/3.9m while VIL lost 0.6m 4G subscribers.
– Mobile number portability (MNP): Total requests for MNP have been consistently increasing, validated by a higher churn and SIM consolidation. The number of MNP requests in Jul’23 stood at 11.8m (vs. 10.9m in Jun’23), representing 1% of total active subscribers.
– Bharti continued to add 1.5m/3.2m gross/active subscribers (vs. 1.4m/0.1m adds in Jun’23), thus improving its active market share by 20bp to 35.9%. 4G subscriber additions stood at 2.9m (vs. 1.3m in Jun’23), taking its total 4G subscriber base to 244m.
– RJio continued to stand out, with gross/active subscriber additions of 3.9m/1.4m MoM (vs. 2.3m add in Jun’23), maintaining an active market share of 39.7% (the highest in the industry). 4G subscriber additions stood at 3.9m MoM (vs. +2.3m in Jun’23).
– IDEA continued to witness churn, with 1.3m/0.4m MoM decline in gross/ active subscribers to 228m/202m (vs. a decline of 1.3m/2.5m in Jun’23). Moreover, its 4G subscriber base declined 0.6m MoM (vs. +1.3m in Jun’23) to 124m, and 4G market share dropped 20bp to 14.9%. Its 4G subscriber count has been flat for the last nine months.
– Wired broadband subscribers for the industry rose 0.6m MoM to 35.7m. RJio/Bharti added 230k/170k subscribers MoM (vs. 250k/140k additions in Jun’23). BSNL’s net subscribers increased 20k (vs. +50k in Jun’23).