Indian Real Estate: Riding Higher in 2025

Gurgaon, 16th December: The Indian real estate market continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability. A supportive regulatory environment and recent regulatory push such as SM-REITs (Small & Medium REITs) and refinement of state-specific RERA (Real Estate Regulation & Development Authority Act) regulations have enhanced transparency and institutionalization in the real estate sector. Policy frameworks have also driven a sense of fair pricing across real estate segments, attracting both developers and investors. 2024 is poised to be a standout year for Indian real estate across asset classes. Grade A office space uptake across the six major cities, propelled by demand from segments such as BFSI, engineering & manufacturing, healthcare, consulting and flex operators, is set to surpass previous records yet again. Leasing activity from both domestic occupiers, as well as Global Capability Centers (GCCs) is likely to end on a strong note in 2024. Residential activity is expected to match 2023 levels, with strong sales across affordable, middle-income and luxury segments. Similarly, industrial & warehousing demand will also remain healthy, buoyed particularly by occupiers from Third Party Logistics (3PL) and engineering segments. These segments are likely to cumulatively account for the bulk of the warehousing demand across the five major cities of the country. Real estate institutional investments for 2024, too will remain healthy, driven by continued domestic growth, stable macroeconomic indicators, and strong investor confidence throughout the year. Additionally, leading real estate players are keen on expanding their Tier-II/III city presence across segments led by infrastructural boost, urbanization and end-user consumption. This presents lucrative opportunities for growth and relatively higher returns across asset classes.

Looking ahead, 2025 is likely to be a year of consolidation and continued innovation in Indian real estate. Sustained confidence of domestic and international investors is widely anticipated to remain unabated. While residential and office markets can potentially stabilize after consecutive peaks, industrial & warehousing demand can witness heightened traction. The growth of the industrial & warehousing segment will be fueled by rising manufacturing output and a thriving logistics industry. Notably, alternative asset classes such as data centers, co-living and senior housing are likely to witness accelerated growth, reflecting a broader and steady shift in demographics and consumer preferences. Rapid urbanization, key infrastructure project completion and industrial corridor development will create new growth opportunities, particularly in Tier-II & III cities. Furthermore, the integration of technology and sustainability will shape the future of real estate development, reinforcing the sector’s role as a cornerstone of India’s economic growth.

“2025 could be another year, wherein multiple real estate classes ride high on investor and end-user optimism. While residential and office markets can potentially stabilize and continue to grow after consecutive peaks, industrial & warehousing demand can witness heightened traction. Notably, alternative asset classes such as data centers, co-living and senior housing are likely to witness accelerated growth, reflecting a broader and steady shift in demographics and consumer preferences. Additionally, the ongoing democratization of real estate is set to gain further momentum through retail investments in fractional ownership platforms and anticipated REITs & SM-REITs throughout 2025.” says Badal Yagnik, Chief Executive Officer, Colliers India.

OFFICE

2024 round-up: Office demand continues to scale-up

The office market in India has continued its upward trajectory, registering a higher space uptake in successive quarters of 2024. Annual gross leasing across the top six cities already reached 47.0 million sq feet by the third quarter of the ongoing year, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase. Bengaluru and Hyderabad remained dominant markets, driving almost half of the leasing activity between January and September. At India level, 2024 is likely to see Grade A absorption breach 60 million sq feet for the first time in the office market of the country. Although demand from tech occupiers has relatively stabilized, it will continue to drive one-fourth of the overall leasing. On the other hand, flex space demand is set to surge and can potentially account for one-fifth of the total demand across the top six cities in 2024. Similar to demand, the 37.4 million sq feet of completions during the first three quarters of 2024 were led by Bengaluru and Hyderabad. Overall, new supply is also likely to follow demand and surpass the 50 million sq feet mark in 2024. Vacancy levels at the end of 2024 will remain rangebound. Rentals, meanwhile, are expected to show a 5-10% annual growth across most cities.

2025 outlook: A year of market solidification and growth

India’s office market, driven by shifts in demand characteristics, will solidify in 2025 and build upon its impressive performance in 2024. The need for managed office spaces amidst evolving business requirements, flexible lease terms and cost arbitrage will continue to fuel adoption of ‘Core + flex’ model in commercial office real estate. Strong domestic growth prospects and a positive economic outlook will keep occupier as well as developer confidence intact. Overall supply is likely to follow the demand trajectory. This is likely to further firm up rentals. Moreover, as demand in Indian commercial office real estate solidifies, notwithstanding unforeseen events, annual space take up to the tune of 60 million sq feet is likely to be the new norm in the next few years.

· Demand base to broaden further with BFSI and Engg. & Mftg, as front runners: In the upcoming year, engineering & manufacturing and BFSI occupiers are expected to together account for about 35-40% of the total office space demand. On the other hand, space uptake by technology firms will eventually stabilize and drive about 25-30% of the total demand as they continue to embrace hybrid and distributed working models.

· GCC demand likely to be on an upswing: GCCs are expected to continue to play a pivotal role in driving the demand for Grade A office space in India, accounting for 40-50% of the leasing activity in 2025. Akin to the recent Karnataka GCC policy, focused policies can be put into motion by various state governments. As GCCs continue to scale-up their India offerings, their need for modern, high-quality office spaces will continue to witness traction over the next few years. Smaller cities like Mysuru, Mangaluru, Hubli and Dharwad can complement the GCC activity of established centers such as Bengaluru in the long term.

· Increasing space rationalization: Going forward, as corporates increasingly implement decentralized work strategies, occupiers are likely to expand their offices in multiple locations with relatively smaller real estate footprints. Average deal size across sectors post-pandemic has rationalized at around 43,000 sq feet in 2023, an 11% dip compared to 2019 levels. At the same time, number of deals rose by 43% during the same period. Across Tier-I cities, we can expect heightened traction in mid-sized deals (50,000-99,999 sq feet). Although average transaction sizes can further rationalize below 40,000 sq feet in 2025, overall volumes in mid-sized deals can increase and contribute close to one-fifth of the Grade-A office space demand.

· Rising activity in Tier-II & III Cities: Corporate India is increasingly open towards operating beyond traditional commercial hubs. Cities like Bhubaneswar, Chandigarh, Coimbatore, Indore, Jaipur, Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram etc. are likely to witness a significant influx of businesses, driven by factors such as lower operating costs, equally strong availability of skilled talent and infrastructure upgrades. This shift is likely to result in a significant demand surge across these smaller cities in 2025. Most of the Tier-II & III cities are likely to witness healthy annual growth in Grade A leasing activity. Additionally, taking demand cues, leading commercial developers are likely to increasingly foray into these markets with Grade A developments.

· Flex spaces growth to continue: As flex spaces continue to transform from niche to mainstream, they are likely to increasingly define the contours of Grade A office spaces in India. Reimagination of workplace, changing perceptions and enterprise-level offerings will continue to drive heightened flex adoption in 2025. Share of leasing by flex space operators is likely to be at around 20% of the overall office demand in the upcoming year. Leading flex space operators will continue to expand their portfolios across Tier-II & III cities with an increasing number of players likely to explore asset-heavy models and acquire select commercial properties instead of leasing them from developers.

· Green certified buildings at the forefront: With a growing emphasis on sustainability, most new office developments in India are incorporating green building practices. LEED and GRIHA-certified buildings are becoming the norm, driven by operational efficacy and compliance pressures. Looking ahead, nearly 80% of the supply pipeline over the next 2-3 years is expected to be green-certified, underscoring the shift towards more sustainable real estate development. About 95-110 million sq feet of existing office stock (≤10 years old) hold the potential for getting E-compliant with minimal capex over the next few years.

RESIDENTIAL

2024 round-up: Strong first half keeps housing sales momentum intact

During 2024, homebuyers’ sentiments have remained positive amidst a compelling domestic economic performance. Supported by stable interest rates, launches and sales across major cities of the country are likely to end on a strong note in 2024. Although there have been recent signs of demand stabilization, a strong first half is likely to ensure another year of remarkable performance by residential real estate. Average housing prices across the top eight cities have already surged 11% annually in 2024. Interestingly, with rising cost pressures, affordability issues can impact the segment more as compared to the office and industrial & warehousing segments.

2025 outlook: Housing demand to remain buoyant despite stabilization

Steady rise in average housing prices can have a stabilizing effect on the residential market in 2025, especially in the affordable housing segment. If enabling conditions prevail, a reduction in benchmark lending rates can add buoyancy to the housing market in 2025. Within residential real estate, demand for luxury and ultra-luxury segments will witness higher growth as compared to affordable and middle-income segments. Developers will continue to recalibrate their strategies and be selective in launching new projects. Amidst sustained housing demand, inventory levels, thus can drop further over the next few quarters. Ready-to-move-in properties and reputed developers with established project execution capabilities will continue to be preferred by homebuyers in 2025.

· Uptick in luxury housing demand: 2025 is likely to witness healthy traction in luxury and ultra-luxury segments, driven by strong appetite from HNIs and NRIs. A clear preference for premium and best-in-class offerings will increasingly define the contours of the segment. Enquiries and primary sales in plotted developments, villas within gated communities and vacation homes are likely to be strong throughout 2025 and beyond.

· Tier-II/III cities on an expansionary mode: With rapid urbanization and enabling factors such as infrastructure boost, tourism growth & employment opportunities, the organized residential market is likely to expand beyond the Tier-I cities, creating dispersed growth centers across the country. Real estate activity in the emerging smaller cities is on the rise, evident from established real estate developers foraying into these markets. Infrastructure development will further fast-track real estate growth in Tier-II & III cities including temple towns such as Amritsar, Ayodhya, Dwarka, Puri, Shirdi, Tirupati, Varanasi, etc.

· Build-to-Rent housing: Untapped opportunity: Within residential real estate, the Build-to-Rent (BTR) segment holds immense potential, driven by rapid urbanization, changing lifestyles, and demand for professionally managed rental housing. Hassle-free contemporary living replete with amenities such as roof-top gardens, gyms, plunge pools etc. can potentially offer better tenant-product-fitment and help in tapping the relatively unexplored segment. BTR properties, often commanding higher rental rates than traditional buildings, can interest niche residential investors and developers over the next few years.

· Growing demand for senior living to create lucrative opportunities: With India’s aging population projected to increase significantly by 2050, there will be a growing need for senior care and housing. Assuming the long-term potential in the sector, developers are likely to ramp up their activities in the senior living landscape during 2025. The senior living sector, currently valued at USD 2-3 billion, is poised for rapid growth, potentially reaching USD 10-12 billion by 2030. Although the demand-supply gap will continue to persist, market penetration and developer offerings are likely to pick up pace in both independent and assisted living formats over the next few years.

· Living smart, living green: Demand for smart and sustainable homes will continue to be on the rise, blending advanced technology with sustainable design elements. Residential projects will increasingly witness the usage of sustainable materials and emphasize natural light, ventilation, & green spaces. Lowering carbon footprints is likely to become an important consideration for new-age homeowners, especially millennials. Additionally, installation of solar panels & smart thermostats, and resource-efficient systems including rainwater harvesting & groundwater replenishment systems will increasingly become mainstream across residential segments.

INDUSTRIAL & WAREHOUSING

2024 round-up: Segment remains upbeat with healthy demand and supply dynamics

The first nine months of 2024 saw a 17% annual growth in industrial & warehousing demand, registering 20.2 million sq feet of leasing across the top five cities of the country. Led by healthy leasing activity and improved developer confidence, the period saw new supply of 21.6 million sq feet, a 29% rise YoY. While 3PL players will continue to dominate the overall leasing activity, demand from Engineering and Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) segments will gain further prominence, resulting in their combined demand share rising to 30-35% in 2024. Similar to the diversification in the office market, the broadening of occupier base is likely to propel Grade A warehousing space demand to 25-30 million sq feet in 2024. Almost half of the leasing activity is expected to come from Delhi NCR and Chennai.

2025 outlook: Scale-up in manufacturing and uptick in consumption to boost industrial & warehousing demand

The industrial & warehousing segment is set for continued growth in 2025, fueled by healthy domestic demand, enhanced logistics efficiency, and India’s improving capabilities as a global manufacturing hub. Strategic markets like Delhi NCR, Pune, and Chennai are expected to see greenfield developments, driven by healthy leasing activity, the ‘Make in India’ initiative, and growing developer confidence. New Industrial corridors, ramp-up in EV manufacturing facilities, and consolidation of various segments will attract robust domestic and global investments. Rentals are likely to rise in key micro-markets due to high demand and limited availability of Grade A warehouses. Developers will continue to incorporate technology and best-in-class ESG practices to meet changing occupier expectations. Emerging sub-segments such as cold storage, chemical warehousing, and self-storage are expected to increasingly contribute to overall warehousing space uptake across major markets of the country.

· Manufacturing impetus can translate into large space requirements: Driven by 3PL and Engineering occupiers, large-sized deals (2,00,000 sq ft & above) are likely to account for 40-50% of the overall Grade A industrial & warehousing demand in 2025. Steadfast implementation of existing government programmes and projects such as Make in India, Gati Shakti, Multi-Modal Logistics Parks (MMLP), Performance Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme etc. will continue to provide a fillip to the manufacturing ecosystem in the country over the next few years, resulting in heightened demand for large industrial & warehousing spaces in key micro-markets of Tier-I cities.

· Increased opportunities in micro-fulfilment centers in Tier-II/III cities: In-city warehouses have already gained prominence in peripheral areas of Tier-I cities, driven by surging E-commerce demand. The demand for Q-commerce and E-commerce has also been notable across Tier-II/III cities, driving demand for micro-warehouses and micro-fulfilment centers. Developers and investors are likely to increasingly scout for opportunities and gain a first-mover advantage in emerging Tier-II/III cities such as Bhopal, Coimbatore, Indore, Nashik, Surat, Visakhapatnam, etc.

· ‘Plug & Play’ industrial parks to gain traction: Plug & play industrial parks will continue to be a focus area of the government. With envisaged plans of setting up 100 such parks in partnership with private companies, 2025 can witness significant activity from both domestic and international players. Industrial & warehousing demand in the coming years, is likely to grow multi-fold backed by steady occupier demand in ready-to-use facilities. Occupiers using Plug & Play facilities will continue to benefit from focusing on their core competencies and reducing in time-to-market cycle.

· EVs and other emerging sub-segments likely to spur industrial & warehousing activity: Over the next 5-6 years, around USD 40 billion of investments are envisaged for phased deployment in the EV industry. This can potentially accelerate land acquisition for setting up EV and Original Equipment (OE) manufacturing units including lithium-ion batteries in 2025. As demand for EVs rises, the industrial & warehousing segment is likely to benefit the most. This segment is expected to see a surge in built-to-suit developments tailored for both global and domestic EV manufacturing companies.

· Heightened interplay of Automation-as-a-Service model and sustainable warehouses: Occupiers are increasingly leveraging technology to scale up their operations and adapt to evolving warehousing requirements. Moreover, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and models such as ‘Automation-as-a-service (AaaS)’ and ‘Digital Twins’ can improve quality control in a holistic manner. Additionally, ESG-compliant and energy-efficient warehouses are likely to be increasingly preferred by both occupiers and developers.

INVESTMENTS

2024 round-up: Indian real estate continues to attract robust institutional inflows

Institutional inflows in Indian real estate continue to remain healthy in 2024, indicating sustained investor confidence. Of the USD 4.7 billion real estate investments during the first nine months of 2024, office and Industrial & warehousing segment together accounted for over 70% share. After witnessing subdued activity in the previous few quarters, investments in office segment surged significantly in the third quarter predominantly driven by foreign investors. Foreign investors continued to dominate overall investments with a 69% share in the total inflows. Buoyed by domestic growth prospects and long-term returns, institutional investments are likely to be around USD 5-6 billion by the end of 2024.

2025 outlook: Indian real estate continues to present compelling investment opportunities

Institutional investment in Indian real estate is expected to remain resilient in 2025 led by healthy economic growth prospects and availability of multiple capital deployment areas. Continuous improvement in ease of doing business backed by a robust regulatory environment will benefit global capital looking at real estate opportunities. Global institutional investors’ confidence will remain upbeat as they continue to make steady investments in both core and non-core assets. Domestic inflows too will not be limited to residential assets and gain further momentum in office and industrial assets. The demand for quality office assets both ready-to-move and developmental will persist, with a focus on sustainability and digitalization. As domestic businesses get familiar with global funding structures, Indian real estate can potentially witness increasing instances of alternate financing avenues such as performance credit, portfolio acquisition, asset restructuring, social impact, distressed, special situation, alternate investment funds (AIFs) and venture capital funds, in the coming years.

· Investments from APAC countries to surge- Institutional investments in India are likely to see continued growth in 2025, with a notable surge expected from APAC countries such as Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong. During January-September 2024, APAC investors accounted for about 28% of the total inflows into Indian real estate, up from 22% in 2021. This trend reflects India’s growing preference within developing Asia Pacific markets, driven by its strong economic performance, improved regulatory framework, and robust demand across multiple real estate segments. Further, with the anticipated reversal of the interest rate cycle and widening yield spreads between bonds and real estate, India continues to present an attractive investment proposition for global and regional investors alike.

· Alternatives & mixed-use assets to gain larger ground: Nascent segments such as data centers, life sciences, holiday homes, senior living, co-living etc. are poised for significant growth in 2025 as investors will continue to seek newer markets and newer avenues to diversify their portfolio while enhancing risk-adjusted returns. While core sectors will continue to dominate the institutional inflows, the share of alternatives is set to rise in 2025. As Indian real estate matures across multiple segments, we are likely to witness an increase in allocation of foreign capital to alternatives. Additionally, developers are likely to focus more on mixed-use assets in leading tech parks and airport development zones which seamlessly combine office, retail, hospitality and industrial & warehousing elements.

· Retrofitting & redevelopment to increase occupancy and financial viability: Retrofitting of older commercial developments will continue to gain traction in 2025. About 300-350 million sq feet of Grade A office stock (>10 years old) across the top six cities has the potential to get refurbished/retrofitted and become environmentally compliant. In the residential segment too, developers are likely to increasingly focus on redevelopment projects, especially in Mumbai, where the availability of greenfield land parcels is limited to a large extent.

· Investments in developmental assets to gain prominence through platforms & joint ventures: Institutional investors have traditionally favored completed, pre-leased assets on account of low risk and steady returns. However, with capital requirements already in place for most Grade A operational projects, institutional investors are likely to increasingly partner with local developers for developmental assets across office, residential, and industrial segments. Developmental asset investments throughout 2025 will span across the early stages of a project including land acquisition, and construction.

· Real estate players to increasingly opt for funding through primary market: Real estate companies in India have so far raised nearly INR 203 billion through Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in 2024, almost 3X times the amount raised in 2023. Driven by strong demand across residential, commercial, and retail segments, IPOs by real estate developers, Housing Finance Companies (HFCs), and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with underlying assets such as Grade A offices and malls are likely to see continued momentum in the near-mid-term. Leading flex space operators too have been expanding their portfolios across cities and expediting their IPO plans. Along with newer office REITs, 2025 can potentially be marked by multiple flex operator IPOs.

· Fractional Ownership: Expanding investment horizons: 2024 witnessed the first SM-REIT listing and a few more are already lined up. SEBI’s recent guidelines pertaining to SM-REITs will encourage Fractional Ownership Platforms (FOPs) to list as SM-REITs, formalizing real estate assets worth over INR 40 billion. SM REITs could see their investor base grow 20 times in the next 4-5 years, democratizing real estate ownership further and establishing fractional ownership as a preferred alternative investment avenue. Additionally, further refinement of SM-REIT guidelines can accentuate retail investor participation beyond office & retail assets and translate into fractional ownership of industrial & warehousing developments and other rent-yielding residential assets in the long term.