Strengthening Heatwave Resilience: How AI Innovation is Empowering a Climate-Ready India  

As temperatures rise and heatwaves grow more frequent and intense, India faces an urgent climate challenge. The country is responding through scientific innovation, engineering, governance frameworks, and cross-institutional implementation to strengthen resilience against extreme heat. These efforts aim to protect vulnerable and heat-exposed populations while supporting long-term development. In doing so, India is emerging as a proactive leader in climate adaptation.

In 2024, many regions across India experienced an average of 19.8^[1] heatwave days. According to official national heat-health surveillance reporting compiled by the National Centre for Disease Control under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India recorded 48,156 suspected heatstroke cases, 269 suspected heatstroke deaths, and 161 confirmed heatstroke deaths during the heat season.^[2] The economic impact remains significant, with an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours of reduced labour capacity in sectors such as agriculture and construction. Looking ahead, climate projections indicate temperature increases of up to 4.4°C by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, underscoring the need for more robust, anticipatory heat-risk management.

Government-led strategies to manage heat risk have evolved steadily. India’s response is anchored in a structured policy and governance framework. The National Action Plan on Heat-Related Illnesses (NAP-HRI^[3]), led by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in 2021 and integrated with the National Programme on Climate Change and Human Health, provides comprehensive guidance for surveillance, prevention, clinical management, and public outreach. Complementing this, the National Disaster Management Authority’s guidelines have catalysed the adoption of Heat Action Plans (HAPs) across more than 130 cities and 23 heat-prone states.

At state and city levels, HAPs translate policy into practical interventions. Measures such as early warning systems, cooling shelters, drinking water distribution, urban greening, and real-time public alerts have become increasingly common. States have further customised these plans to local contexts. The impact of these measures is tangible: Ahmedabad’s Heat Action Plan – one of India’s earliest – alone is estimated to have averted nearly 2,380 deaths^[4] between 2014 and 2015.

While policy provides the foundation, advances in data science and artificial intelligence are strengthening India’s anticipatory capacity for managing extreme heat. At ARTPARK-IISc^[5], the initiative Heatwave Resilience: Integrating AI-based Advanced Forecasting for Extreme Heat Events exemplifies this shift. This AI-driven heat-risk forecasting system leverages deep-learning models and advanced downscaling techniques to deliver sub-district-level heat forecasts up to ten days in advance. The system  supports impact-based forecasting by going beyond air temperature alone, integrating multiple meteorological variables and heat-stress indicators. For instance, Heat Index reflects human-perceived heat under humidity, Excess Heat Factor detects anomalous and accumulated heat stress, and elevated night-time temperatures may indicate reduced physiological recovery. Together, these indicators enable a more comprehensive assessment of heat risk.

The system is being designed to integrate health and socio-economic datasets to generate targeted, context-specific advisories for institutional stakeholders and at-risk populations. Outputs are intended to be disseminated through existing channels, including dashboards, mobile applications, and local-language SMS systems. Advisory frameworks draw on established Heat Action Plan guidance and are being refined through co-development with research partners and stakeholders, alongside field validation to ensure operational relevance across diverse climatic and socio-institutional contexts. Continued research and capacity building will support the progressive strengthening of in-country modelling capabilities for climate-risk applications.

Government institutional partnerships are central to operationalising these innovations. The initiative is supported through Grand Challenges India and Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council and recognised under the IndiaAI Mission’s Innovation Challenge. It works in collaboration with key public agencies, including the India Meteorological Department, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre, and the Department of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Karnataka. These partnerships enable AI tools to be developed and deployed within public systems, aligning analytical outputs with governance workflows across public health, agriculture, disaster management, and other climate-sensitive sectors. Designed for scalability beyond pilot geographies and extendable across climate-risk applications, the initiative supports nationally adaptable approaches to climate-risk forecasting and response, strengthening anticipatory capacity and risk-informed governance.

As India, with its growing innovation capacity, prepared to host the India AI Impact Summit from 16–20 February 2026 under the IndiaAI Mission, initiatives like ours – Heatwave Resilience – illustrated how artificial intelligence could support public-good applications in climate and health. By integrating advances in policy, science, and digital systems, these efforts strengthened the country’s capacity to anticipate and manage extreme heat risks, contributing to a more resilient and climate-adaptive future.

By Harish Nalawade, Program Manager, ARTPARK-IISc (I-Hub for Robotics and Autonomous Systems Innovation Foundation)
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Dr Vybhav G R, Lead, Computational Science – Climate and Weather, ARTPARK-IISc (I-Hub for Robotics and Autonomous Systems Innovation Foundation)