Bitcoin Near $80K, Market Enters Key Decision Zone: Vikram Subbaraju

Market analysis by Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

May 04, 2026

Bitcoin moved back towards the $80,000 mark on May 4, 2026, with desks showing BTC near $80,099. This is up 2.51% in 24 hours with a market capitalisation of about $1.60 trillion. The move is important because BTC has crossed the $78,100 True Market Mean. This level had acted as the main near-term ceiling in mid-April.

The immediate trading band is now clearer. The first support sits around $78,000-$78,100, followed by the broader $74,000-$76,000 zone. Resistance is clustered around $80,100-$81,000. A clean hold above $78,100 would suggest that the market has absorbed part of the overhead supply from short-term holders.

On-chain data show that this is not yet a euphoric phase. An April 15 reading placed short-term-holder supply in profit at 43.2%, while the 30-day EMA of the realised profit/loss ratio stood at 1.16. That combination points to improving sentiment, but also shows that investors are selling into strength.

ETF flows supported the recovery. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $663.9 million on April 17, $238.4 million on April 20, $335.8 million on April 22, and $629.8 million on May 1. The weak patch came between April 27 and April 29. This is when ETFs saw outflows of $263.2 million, $89.7 million, and $137.6 million.

The April-end macro backdrop remained complicated. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29. However, the decision saw four dissents and it was the most divided vote since 1992, as per reports. Iran-war inflation risk and oil above $100 a barrel kept rate-cut expectations under pressure.

Altcoins were positive, but not broadly strong. ETH was around $2,363, up 2.76% in 24 hours; XRP was near $1.41, up 1.70%; BNB was near $625.80, up 1.70%; SOL was around $84.60 in a market-cap table; and TRX was near $0.33. The market, therefore, remains BTC-led rather than altcoin-led.

Our advice: Investors should treat the $78,000-$80,000 Bitcoin zone as a decision band rather than a breakout confirmation. ETF inflows above $600 million on strong days indicate institutional demand remains strong, but macro risks remain elevated ahead of the May 12 U.S. CPI print. Investors may prefer staggered entries instead of chasing short-term rallies near resistance. Portfolio allocation should remain selective, with attention on liquidity, macro data, and position sizing rather than momentum alone