Who Will Win Russia-Ukraine War?

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it was felt that the war will be over within days. That thought had its logic, as Russia had the edge in terms of military might. However, now after almost a year’s time, much of Ukraine remains a free country. Regular funding and supply of weapons by NATO countries has helped Ukraine put up a stiff resistance.

As the war continues and none of the sides seem to be in a mood to give up their positions, it makes us wonder who will win the Russia-Ukraine war. Here are five potential scenarios that can help explain who will win the Russia-Ukraine war.

Russia loses Crimea – Instead of winning Ukraine or its regions, Russia could actually end up losing Crimea. Russia’s pull-back from Kherson is being seen as a key reason why Ukraine now has the option to take back Crimea. Much of the approaches that lead to Crimea can now be targeted by Ukrainian weapon systems. Russia is apparently aware of the risks, which is why it has been busy fortifying its defenses in the region.

Supply of advanced weapon systems – NATO has been supplying a wide variety of weapons to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict. However, much of these are meant to be used for defensive purposes. Ukraine has been demanding more advanced weapon systems that can be used for active offence. Ukraine has asked for tanks, air defense systems, advanced fighter jets and long-range missiles. How fast NATO countries can deliver these weapons will determine the fate of Russia-Ukraine war.

Nuclear threat – As the conflict continues, some experts feel that the threat of nuclear war is increasing day by day. Russia had earlier stated that it will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty is harmed. There are also talks that even Ukraine may be secretly working to build its nuclear weapons. It is felt that Ukraine has been repeatedly targeted, as it does not have a nuclear deterrence.

Third world war – In the previous world wars, the friction started in a specific region, which later spread to other parts of the world. In that sense, Russia-Ukraine war has potential to escalate into a third world war. Already, there is involvement of NATO countries, whereas Russia has its own set of supporting nations such as Iran, Syria, Belarus, China, etc. Many countries are also supporting Russia through economic engagements.

Peace treaty – A long-term war is a big drag on the economy and people of the countries involved. As history reveals, wars can continue for years without any positive gains. United States spent 20 years in Afghanistan and now things are back to square one. Emerging world powers like India and China can probably broker a truce between Russia and Ukraine. Both India and China have significant influence over Russia-Ukraine. So, a truce could be possible soon.